It was assumed that the probability of a second relapse after a successful return to remission from a relapse was as in the first month of remission.
The following probabilities were assumed based on expert opinions:
probability of surgery immediately following relapse was 0.10;
probability of receiving first-line acute therapy following relapse, 0.90;
probability of surgery after failure of first-line acute therapy, 0.10;
probability of second-line acute therapy after first-line acute therapy, 0.90;
probability of successful second-line acute therapy (i.e. back to maintenance therapy), 0.50;
probability of failing second-line acute therapy (i.e. go to surgery), 0.50;
probability of having successful surgery, 0.99;
and probability of death in surgery, 0.01.