The probabilities of various outcomes used in the decision tree model were as follows (base analysis):
(1) Revascularisation:
Operative mortality: 0.02
Early (at 30 days) patency: 0.90
Early thrombosis: 0.08
Early patency after thrombectomy/revision: 0.28
Successful wound healing with patent revascularisation: 0.90
Late (at 5 years) patency: 0.50
(2) primary amputation:
Operative mortality: 0.02
Successful wound healing after amputation: 0.90
Ambulate after primary amputation: 0.50
Ambulate after re-amputation: 0.45
Ambulate after failed revascularisation/amputation: 0.47; and
(3) Expectant management:
Remain the same (at 5 years): 0.10
Progress to require amputation (at 5 years): 0.90.