Mortality was reported to be reduced by 65% due to the use of carvedilol compared to the use of conventional therapy alone (95% CI: 39% - 82%). The respective reduction in terms of mean number of CHF-related hospitalisations was 53% (95% CI: 19% - 70%).
The probabilities included in the Markov model were as shown below.
(1) Death (monthly) when hospitalised for CHF: conventional 0.203, carvedilol 0.080.
(2) Death (monthly) when hospitalised for non-CHF reasons: conventional 0.007, carvedilol 0.003.
(3) Hospitalisation at therapy initiation: conventional 0, carvedilol 0.014.
(4) No additional hospitalisation for CHF (monthly): conventional 0.008, carvedilol 0.004.
(5) One additional hospitalisation for CHF (monthly): conventional 0.052, carvedilol 0.028.
(6) Two additional hospitalisations for CHF (monthly): conventional 0.106, carvedilol 0.058.
(7) Three additional hospitalisations for CHF (monthly): conventional 0.121, carvedilol 0.066.
(8) Four or more additional hospitalisations for CHF (monthly): conventional 0.180, carvedilol 0.098.
The following long-term probabilities for the patients receiving conventional therapy were indirectly estimated based on the results of a trial:
(1) incidence of death at 6 and 41 months, 7.1% and 35.2% respectively;
(2) incidence of hospitalisation for CHF at 6 and 41 months, 11.7% and 47.7%, respectively;
(3) CHF hospitalisation per person at 41 months, 0.532;
(4) 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more additional hospitalisation for CHF at 41 months, 13.6%, 5.4%, 3.1%, and 3.7%, respectively.