The following values were input into the model:
polyp prevalence at age 50, 15%;
small polyp prevalence at age 50, 95%;
large polyp prevalence at age 50, 5%;
annual transition rate to large polyp from small polyp, 1.5%;
annual transition rate to cancer without polypoid precursor, age-specific, 0.006 - 0.086%;
annual transition rate to cancer from large polyp, 5%;
symptomatic presentation of localised cancer, 22 per year over 2 years;
symptomatic presentation of regionalised cancer, 40 per year over 2 years;
mortality rate from treated localised cancer, 1.74 per year in the first 5 years;
mortality rate from treated regionalised cancer, 8.6 per year in the first 5 years;
mean survival from distant cancer, 1.9 years;
mortality rate from cancer treatment, 2%;
sensitivity of VC for cancer, 95% (range: 75 - 95);
sensitivity of VC for large polyp, 75% (range: 60 - 94);
sensitivity of VC for small polyp, 70% (range: 45 - 87);
specificity of VC, 85% (range: 80 - 93);
sensitivity of COLO for cancer, 95% (range: 90 - 97);
sensitivity of COLO for large polyp, 90% (range: 85 - 95);
sensitivity of COLO for small polyp, 85% (range: 80 - 90);
major complication rate with colonoscopy, 0.1% (range: 0.05 - 0.5);
mortality rate with colonoscopy, 0.01% (range: 0.005 - 0.03).