The following average probability values for experimental strategy 1 were estimated from the literature.
Suspicious (grade 3-4-5) US result, 0.349 (range: 0.314 - 0.385).
Malignant (grade 4) FNAC result after US, 0.324 (range: 0.267 - 0.386).
True-positive result surgery after malignant FNAC and US, 0.983 (range: 0.922 - 0.999).
Benign (grade 2) FNAC result after US, 0.439 (range: 0.363 - 0.517).
False-negative result surgery after benign FNAC and US, 0.074 (range: 0.026 - 0.162).
Malignant (grade 3-4-5) biopsy result after FNAC and US (true-positive), 0.435 (range: 0.333 - 0.541).
Surgery after benign (grade 2) US result, 0.126 (range: 0.098 - 0.160).
False-negative result surgery after benign US result, 0.023 (range: 0.001 - 0.106).
False-negative result of discharge after normal (grade 1) US result, 0.000 (range: 0.000 - 0.050).
The following average probability values for experimental strategy 2 were estimated.
Suspicious (grade 2-3-4-5) US result, 0.761 (range: 0.728 - 0.791).
Malignant (grade 4) FNAC result after US, 0.149 (range: 0.120 - 0.181).
True-positive result surgery after malignant FNAC and US, 0.983 (range: 0.922 - 0.999).
Benign (grade 2) FNAC result after US, 0.580 (range: 0.534 - 0.625).
False-negative result surgery after benign FNAC and US, 0.107 (range: 0.073 - 0.151).
Malignant (grade 3-4-5) biopsy result after FNAC and US (true-positive), 0.099 (range: 0.061 - 0.150).
Surgery after benign (grade 2) US result, 0.000 (range: 0.000 - 0.050).
False-negative result surgery after benign US result, 0.000 (range: 0.000 - 0.050).
False-negative result of discharge after normal (grade 1) US result, 0.000 (range: 0.000 - 0.050).
The following average probability values for experimental strategy 3 were estimated.
Suspicious (grade 3-4-5) CE plus MAM result, 0.753 (range: 0.712 - 0.784).
Suspicious (grade 3-4-5) US result, 0.078 (range: 0.043 - 0.128).
Malignant (grade 4) FNAC result after US, 0.200 (range: 0.037 - 0.507).
True-positive result surgery after malignant FNAC and US, 1.000.
Benign (grade 2) FNAC result after US, 0.500 (range: 0.193 - 0.807).
False-negative result surgery after benign FNAC and US, 0.000 (range: 0.000 - 0.050).
Malignant (grade 3-4-5) biopsy result after FNAC and US (true-positive), 0.250 (range: 0.001 - 0.106).
Surgery after benign (grade 2) US result, 0.109 (range: 0.066 - 0.168).
False-negative result surgery after benign US result, 0.000 (range: 0.000 - 0.050).
False-negative result of discharge after normal (grade 1) US result, 0.000 (range: 0.000 - 0.050).
The following average probability values common to all strategies were estimated.
Local recurrence after primary surgery, 0.100 (range: 0.05 - 0.150).
Palliative stage after diagnosis, 0.010 (range: 0.005 - 0.015).
Palliative stage after adjuvant therapy, 0.440 (range: 0.220 - 0.660).
Palliative stage after non-adjuvant therapy, 0.220 (range: 0.110 - 0.330).
Palliative stage after local recurrence, 0.670 (range: 0.335 - 1.000).
LE was as follows:
for palliative stage after diagnostic test, 1.5 years (range: 0.8 - 2.3);
for palliative stage after local recurrence, 5 years (range: 2.5 - 7.5);
for palliative stage after local and distant recurrence, 8 years (range: 4 - 12);
for disease-free after diagnostic test, 32.8 years (range: 16 - 49);
for disease-free after treatment, 32.8 years (range: 16 - 49).