Nine studies were included (n=51,744 patients included 12,035 who were exposed to NSAIDs): two cohort studies, three nested case-control studies and four case-control studies. All of the nested case-control studies and cohort studies used computerised records to obtain data on exposure and outcomes. The case-control studies obtained data from field-based patient interviews. Confounders most commonly adjusted for were age, sex, prior ulcer history and concomitant medicines.
Cohort studies and nested case-control studies showed lower summary risks compared to field-based case-control studies.
Traditional NSAIDs were associated with a relative risk of bleeding or perforation of 4.50 (95% CI 3.82 to 5.31; significant heterogeneity). Coxibs were associated with a relative risk of 1.88 (95% CI 0.96 to 3.71).
A lower than the overall risk for NSAIDs was found for ibuprofen (RR 2.69, 95% CI 2.17 to 3.33), rofecoxib (RR 2.12, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.84), aceclofenac (RR 1.44, 95% CI 0.65 to 3.20) and celecoxib (RR 1.42, 95% CI 0.85 to 2.37). Relative risks were higher for ketorolac (RR 14.54, 95% CI 5.87 to 36.04) and piroxicam (RR 9.94, 95% CI 5.99 to 16.50).
Relative risks for other NSAIDs were: naproxen (RR 5.63, 95% CI 3.83 to 8.28), ketoprofen (RR 5.57, 95% CI 3.94 to 7.87), indomethacin (RR 5.40, 95% CI 4.16 to 7.00), meloxicam (RR 4.15, 95% CI 2.59 to 6.64) and diclofenac (RR 3.98, 95% CI 3.36 to 4.72).
Higher risks of gastrointestinal bleeding/perforation were found for NSAIDs with a long half-life (RR 5.74, 95% CI 3.58 to 9.21) and with slow-release formulations (RR 5.87, 95% CI 4.74 to 7.26).
Results were reported in tables for current and past use of NSAIDs and for treatment duration (from one to 30 days up to >365 days).
There was no evidence of publication bias from the funnel plot.
There was no significant correlation between the degree of inhibition of whole blood COX-1 and upper gastrointestinal bleeding or perforation. Profound and coincident inhibition (>80%) of both COX isoenzymes was associated with a higher risk.