Analytical approach:
A Markov model with a cycle length of one month was constructed based on a published model (Melliez, et al. 2005, see 'Other Publications of Related Interest' below for bibliographic details). The time horizon was lifetime and the authors stated that the perspectives were those of the UK National Health Service (NHS) and society.
Effectiveness data:
The authors used their judgement to select the most appropriate estimates and incidence rates from the available evidence found in the published literature. They multiplied these incidence rates by the UK child population under five years old to generate the number of cases. This was used, with the distribution patterns of rotavirus infection, to estimate the transition probabilities. Vaccine efficacy rates were taken from a phase IIIb European clinical trial (Vesikari, et al. 2007, see 'Other Publications of Related Interest' below for bibliographic details) for the first and second year, and decreased by 10% in each subsequent year. The main clinical parameters were the vaccine efficacy and the incidence rates.
Monetary benefit and utility valuations:
The utility estimates were obtained from a UK study, which used the European Quality of life (EQ-5D) questionnaire to derive the utility for various severities of rotavirus gastroenteritis. These quality of life ratings were obtained from general practitioners (GPs) and paediatricians (Martin, et al. 2008, see 'Other Publications of Related Interest' below for bibliographic details).
Measure of benefit:
The benefit measure was the number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).
Cost data:
The cost categories included the costs of vaccine, hospitalisation, accident and emergency treatment, GP treatment, direct NHS treatment, prescription, and carers. The unit cost data were obtained from published literature. The price year was 2006 and costs were inflated using the Hospital and Community Health Services indices for health care costs and the Consumer Price Index for other costs. An annual discount rate of 3.5% was applied.
Analysis of uncertainty:
One-way sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the model inputs within their 95% confidence intervals. The results were discussed and presented in a diagram. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed with 5,000 repetitions of Monte Carlo simulation. The results were presented using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.