Analytical approach:
A lifetime probabilistic patient-level simulation was created, with an annual cycle length. The model consisted of four mutually exclusive states corresponding to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages II, III and IV, and death. The patient characteristics were randomly assigned from a population distribution. The authors stated that they adopted an Italian health services perspective.
Effectiveness data:
The primary effectiveness data were from a large multicentre randomised controlled trial, the Understanding Potential Long-Term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT) trial (Tashkin, et al. 2008, see 'Other Publications of Related Interest' below for bibliographic details). The main effectiveness data were the relative risks of mortality and exacerbations, and the differences in lung function and quality of life score.
Monetary benefit and utility valuations:
Health-related quality of life was recorded using St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ). The SGRQ scores were matched to the GOLD stages. The SGRQ data were mapped to the European Quality of life (EQ-5D) questionnaire to create health-related utility weights, using a published mapping algorithm.
Measure of benefit:
The measures of benefit were life-years gained and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Benefits were discounted at a 3.5% annual rate.
Cost data:
The cost data were from a study of COPD in Italian referral centres, and Italian reimbursement tariffs. The costs included diagnostic and laboratory tests, doctor visits, hospitalisation, and drug and other therapy for routine care and COPD exacerbation care. The costs were adjusted to more closely match the characteristics of patients in the UPLIFT trial. All costs were in Euros (EUR) and a discount rate of 3.5% per year was applied.
Analysis of uncertainty:
Uncertainty was investigated by assigning probability distributions to each model parameter. These distributions varied according to the characteristics of patients that predicted progression between GOLD stages and to death. A scatterplot of the results was presented, as well as a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve.