With no interventions, the total cost was CAD 97.06 billion and QALYs lost were 13.37 million.
For the COPD predisposition screening test in early smokers, the total cost ranged from CAD 98.87 to CAD 95.65 billion and the QALYs lost ranged from 13.35 to 13.21 million depending on the efficacy assumption.
For the new drug to reduce COPD progression rate, the total cost ranged from CAD 95.65 to CAD 90.09 billion and the QALYs lost ranged from 13.04 to 11.77 million.
For the exacerbation prediction test, the total cost ranged from CAD 90.25 to CAD 62.60 billion and the QALYs lost ranged from 12.61 to 9.54 million.
At a value of CAD 50,000 per QALY, the net monetary benefit (in billion) ranged from CAD 1.22 to CAD 9.39 with the predisposition screening test, from CAD 17.61 to CAD 86.69 with the new drug to reduce the rate of progression, and from 44.46 to CAD 225.72 with the exacerbation predictive test. These results showed that the prediction of exacerbations test had the greatest potential for achieving benefits.
The sensitivity analyses showed that exacerbation rates had the greatest impact on model outcomes, while increased rates of asthma had a negligible effect.