The results of the probability values used as input parameters to the model were as follows:
the probability of a positive skin test in the patient population ranged from 0.1 to 0.3;
the probability of a toxic reaction to vancomycin was 0.15 (range: 0.09 - 0.24);
the probability of a microbiological cure with a vancomycin based regimen was 0.7 (range: 0.62 - 0.79);
the probability of a toxic reaction to penicillin in a patient who has a negative skin test was 0.02 (range: 0 - 0.04);
the probability of a severe hypersensitivity reaction in a patient with a history of a penicillin allergy was 0.002;
the probability of a negative skin test in a patient who has a questionable history of penicillin allergy was 0.8;
the probability of death due to a severe hypersensitivity reaction was 0.1;
the probability of a severe hypersensitivity reaction in this setting was 0.0016 and the probability of death, given a severe hypersensitivity reaction to penicillin was 0.00016;
the probability of a microbiological cure with a cloxacillin-based regimen was 0.95.
The utility of a microbiological cure in skin test positive patients who receive vancomycin without adverse reactions was 0.95 (outcome 1).
The utility of a microbiological failure in skin test positive patients who receive vancomycin and have no adverse reaction was 0.85 (outcome 2).
The utility of microbiological cure in skin test positive patients who receive vancomycin and have an adverse reaction was 0.90 (outcome 3).
The utility of microbiological failure in skin test positive patients who receive vancomycin and have an adverse reaction was 0.75 (outcome 4).
The utility of microbiological cure in skin test negative patients who receive cloxacillin and do not have any allergic reaction was 0.985 (outcome 5).
The utility of microbiological failure in skin test negative patients who receive cloxacillin and not have any allergic reaction was 0.885 (outcome 6).
The utility of microbiological cure in skin test negative patients who receive cloxacillin and suffer a penicillin reaction and survive was 0.92 (outcome 7).
The utility of microbiological failure in skin test negative patients who receive cloxacillin and suffer a penicillin reaction and survive was 0.82 (outcome 8).
The utility of skin test negative patients who receive cloxacillin and suffer a penicillin reaction and die was 0 (outcome 9).
The utility of microbiological cure in patients who are not skin tested and who receive vancomycin without adverse reactions was 0.97 (outcome 10).
The utility of microbiological failure in patients who are not skin tested and receive vancomycin without adverse reactions was 0.875 (outcome 11).
The utility of microbiological cure in patients who are not skin tested and receive vancomycin and suffer adverse reactions was 0.92 (outcome 12).
The utility of microbiological failure in patients who are not skin tested and receive vancomycin and suffer adverse reactions was 0.87 (outcome 13).