For the whole population, the total number of deaths avoided was 363 (95% CI 200 to 582) with VAT reduction, 77 (95% CI 48 to 116) with food stamps, and 30 (95% CI 15 to 51) with an information campaign pessimistic scenario, and 298 (95% CI 149 to 507) with an information campaign optimistic scenario.
The total number of life-years saved was 5,024 (95% CI 2,711 to 8,132) with VAT reduction, 1,032 (95% CI 634 to 1,554) with food stamps, and 414 (95% CI 203 to 710) with an information campaign pessimistic scenario, and 4,126 (95% CI 2,022 to 7,077) with an information campaign optimistic scenario.
The costs to the government of decreasing VAT were assumed to be EUR 465 million. It was assumed that the same would be spent on food stamps, which worked out to EUR 100 per year per person. The information campaign cost EUR 10 million, based on the annual amount spent by public authorities and the producers’ associations.
For VAT reduction, the average cost-effectiveness ratio was EUR 1,379,000 (95% CI 799,000 to 2,322,000) per death avoided and EUR 100,000 (95% CI 57,000 to 171,000) per life-year saved. For food stamps, the ratio was EUR 6,316,000 (95% CI 4,015,000 to 9,663,000) per death avoided and EUR 474,000 (95% CI 299,000 to 733,000) per life-year saved.
For the information campaign, the ratio was EUR 369,000 (95% CI 197,000 to 670,000) per death avoided and EUR 27,000 (95% CI 14,000 to 49,000) per life-year saved, for the pessimistic scenario, and EUR 37,000 (95% CI 20,000 to 67,000) per death avoided and EUR 3,000 (95% CI 1,000 to 5,000) per life-year saved, for the optimistic scenario.