In the population of over 12 million elderly people, the number of ILI cases was 2,050,687 with no vaccination, 1,499,134 with standard vaccination, and 1,316,690 with MF59 vaccination. The hospitalisations and deaths were lower with the MF59 vaccine than with standard vaccination, which in turn had better rates than no vaccination.
The total costs were EUR 1,085,377,329 with no vaccination, EUR 1,135,628,083 with standard vaccination, and EUR 1,011,341,993 with MF59 vaccination. Standard vaccination increased the total costs by 4.6% over no vaccination, while MF59 vaccination reduced costs by 6.8% compared with no vaccination (cost saving).
Comparable clinical and economic outcomes were observed when considering the alternative mismatch scenario, but all the data were less favourable to the two vaccination options.
The sensitivity analysis showed that the base case findings were robust and the cost of hospitalisation for respiratory complications was the key driver of the model. In all cases, MF59 remained less costly than traditional vaccination and no vaccination.