QALYs lost through varicella were: 60,385 in the no vaccination group; 7,763 with childhood varicella vaccination alone; 60,220 with Herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly alone; and 7,661 with varicella vaccination in children and herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly.
QALYs lost through herpes zoster were: 588,332 in the no vaccination group; 630,188 with childhood varicella vaccination alone; 562,299 with Herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly alone; and 601,433 with varicella vaccination in children and herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly.
Total treatment costs through varicella were: £661,348,000 in the no vaccination group; £75,483,600 with childhood varicella vaccination alone; £658,633,000 with Herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly alone; and £74,348,050 with varicella vaccination in children and herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly.
Total treatment costs through herpes zoster were: £883,975,500 in the no vaccination group; £917,885,500 with childhood varicella vaccination alone; £851,420,000 with Herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly alone; and £882,094,500 with varicella vaccination in children and herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly.
The total vaccination costs were: zero with no vaccination; £929,076,000 with childhood varicella vaccination; £538,090,000 with herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly alone; and £1,467,170,000 with varicella vaccination in children and herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly.
Costs and outcomes were combined using an incremental cost-utility ratio (additional cost per QALY gained). Results were presented in a cost-effectiveness plane. Results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that when compared with no vaccination the probability that childhood varicella vaccination alone was cost-effective at a £30,000 per QALY gained was 50%, for herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly alone was 96% and for varicella vaccination in children and herpes zoster vaccination of the elderly was 70%.
The results were found to be very sensitive to the time-frame of analysis. Childhood varicella vaccination was unlikely to be cost-effective if evaluated 30 to 50 years post vaccination.